Wednesday, October 22, 2014

99% Chance, 100% Mike Enzi

What do the polls say?


      According to at least four polling websites, Mike Enzi is almost guaranteed a win for Wyoming's seat in the Senate. Running for his fourth consecutive term, Enzi has all of the benefits that come along with incumbency. His name is well known and the state of Wyoming is a fan of his highly conservative ideals. Enzi is running against Charlie Hardy, the Democratic Candidate, but Hardy does not seem to be doing anything to weaken Enzi's hold on the state.
       RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Election Projection, three polling websites, report almost identical findings. Multiple polls are shown, but all of them support the idea of Enzi's victory. The polling firms are the same for all of the polling websites being conducted either by YouGov or Rasmussen. RealClearPolitics averaged, over a few different sources, that Enzi was ahead by about 47 points, a huge gap. FiveThirtyEight, while showing the same results, predicts that there is over 99% chance that Enzi will be reelected. Therefore, that means that his opponent, Charlie Hardy, has barely any chance at all. FiveThirtyEight actually weighted the different polls based on their own pollster ratings. That made the numbers slightly more accurate, by their account. The prediction remained the same across the board. Election Projection had data that reaffirmed that Enzi has a great chance of winning the election. On Politico, another website that has been monitoring the 2014 midterm election, Wyoming is rated as being safe Republican, meaning that it is almost impossible for Mike Enzi to not be elected.
        In general, across the board, it seems to be that there is common agreement that Mike Enzi will, once again, represent Wyoming in the Senate.

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